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Daily Bullion & Oil Technical Research Report

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Flat For the Day

Silver markets rallied slightly during the trading session on Monday, but really haven’t been able to hang on to gains for any amount of time. At this point, the market is likely to pay attention to the 200 day EMA which is right here.
Silver markets have been relatively quiet during the trading session on Monday, as we are hanging around the 200 day EMA. We initially got a little bit of a move higher but have given back about half of that move by the time New York traders got on board.

That suggest that perhaps silver is in a bit of trouble. Having said that, we have structural support underneath, so it should be paid attention to. Silver has steadied on Monday, after sustaining sharp losses at the end of last week following a strong nonfarm payrolls report.

Investors are looking ahead to U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve rate decision. Silver is flat at the start of the week. In the European session, silver is trading at $16.59, up $0.07 or 0.41% on the day.

Solid Nonfarm Payrolls Boost Risk Appetite

An excellent U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday triggered a sharp drop of 2.3% in silver prices. The economy added a whopping 266 thousand jobs in November, crushing the estimate of 181 thousand.

As well, the 3-month average payroll number increased from 189K to 205K. Still, traders should take these rosy numbers with a grain of salt, as the recent strike at General Motors caused unusually low nonfarm payrolls readings, and the November spike was largely due to the fact that all striking GM employees were back at work. The markets, however, were focused on the strong numbers, which raised risk appetite and sent precious metals lower. Gold prices also slipped on Friday, falling by 1 percent.

Ahead – Consumer Data, Fed Rate Decision

This week will be busy on the fundamental front, and that could translate into significant movement from silver. On Wednesday, the U.S. releases CPI and the Federal Reserve releases its monthly rate decision.

On Friday, we’ll get a look at retail sales. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is just below the 200 day EMA and it’s likely that we will continue to offer plenty of support. Ultimately, this is a market that is going to move on risk appetite more than anything else, and if that risk appetite continues to pick up, that works against the value of silver.

Rally to this point will have significant resistance at the $17.00 level, and of course the 50 day EMA. We had recently broken through an uptrend line so that of course is a negative sign as well. If we were to break down below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at roughly $16.40, the market is likely to go looking towards the $16.00 level underneath.

That of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure so it should attract a certain amount of attention. Having said that, by the time we make that move this would be a very negative market and should fall apart at that point. While there are arguments to be made for a sudden shift in sentiment, I need to see the 50 day EMA taken out to the upside at the very least to get bullish again.